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The Endgame in Florida
ORLANDO -- Florida provides the appropriate closing metaphor for the 2008 campaign.
If John McCain were on a clear path to victory, there would be no campaign here at all. Yet there was McCain's running mate Sarah Palin, battling on Sunday across the state's crucial central corridor in Tampa and Kissimmee. Come Wednesday, Bill Clinton will campaign with Barack Obama -- the former president's first joint appearance with the Democratic nominee -- at an evening rally here.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/obamas_work_pays_off_in_florid.html
Winning Clinton's West Virginia Voters
WILLIAMSON, W.Va. -- It's hard to find a place more Democratic than here in Mingo County, snug up against Kentucky in the southwestern corner of the state, where Mother Jones fought to unionize striking coalminers.
In 2004, when President Bush trounced John Kerry by seven points in this state, Mingo voted 56 percent for Kerry. Of 19,391 registered voters, just 1,741 are Republicans.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/winning_clintons_west_virginia.html
The Treats to Our Markets
Are Barack Obama's proposed tax increases adversely affecting our financial markets? We say yes, unambiguously. The senator has done a masterful job detracting attention from his tax increases with his $500-per-worker tax credit supposedly for 95 percent of Americans.
Obama has also set forth more than half a dozen additional refundable income tax credits targeted to low- and moderate-income workers for child care, education, housing, welfare, retirement, health care and other social purposes. These tax credits are devised to phase out based on income, which will ultimately increase marginal income tax rates for middle-class workers. In other words, as you earn more, you suffer a penalty in the phase-out of these credits, which has the exact effect of a marginal tax rate increase. That harms rather than improves the economy.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_treats_to_our_markets.html
Obama's Rallies Enormous Crowd in Denver
Colorado, in just 9 days, you'll have the chance to elect your next President. And you'll have the chance to bring the change we need to Washington. That's the good news. But we're going to have to work, and struggle, and fight for every single one of those 9 days to move our country in a new direction. We cannot let up. And we won't.
Because one thing we know is that change never comes without a fight. In the final days of campaigns, the say-anything, do-anything politics too often takes over. We've seen it before. And we're seeing it again today. The ugly phone calls. The misleading mail and TV ads. The careless, outrageous comments. All aimed at keeping us from working together, all aimed at stopping change.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/obamas_rallies_enormous_crowd.html
Gov. Kaine and Karl Rove on "Fox News Sunday"
CHRIS WALLACE, HOST: I'm Chris Wallace and this is "Fox News Sunday."
Nine days and counting until we elect a new president. As Obama and McCain criss-cross the country fighting for votes, the final battleground is set.
We'll handicap the race in two crucial states with Tim Kaine, governor of red-state Virginia and national co-chair for Obama, and Tom Ridge, former governor of blue-state Pennsylvania and a McCain national co-chair - - Kaine and Ridge, only on "Fox News Sunday."
Then, what happens in the final week of the campaign? We'll crunch the numbers, discuss the closing arguments and review the ground operations with the man behind two presidential victories, master strategist Karl Rove.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/gov_kaine_and_karl_rove_on_fox.html
Messianic Pretensions
For all the figurative heat of crashing markets, impending recession numbers, carnage in the commodities, the flying squirt-bomb of the American dollar, the cat's cradle of international political crises, humanitarian disasters across Africa, the usual Islamist terrorism, and the deep winter freeze portended by a flatlined solar magnetic low -- there is Hope. But that is of another world. Hope, in this world, must be for the right things.
My column today may be read as an extension of what I wrote Wednesday for this page. I concluded those remarks by noting that if, by a surprise that is not implausible, McCain wins, we may have riots across the United States starting in Grant Park, Chicago, and an unprecedented outpouring of anti-American venom across 24 time zones. (Take France, for example, where support for McCain was clocked in a recent poll at one percent.)
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/messianic_pretensions.html
A Turn in the Housing Market?
Is it possible that the housing market has turned?
Blamed for just about everything bad that has happened recently to the economy, housing sales, I dare say, are showing signs of picking up. At the risk of being considered a lunatic, I say this for reasons of systematically gathered data, personal experience and common sense.
First the data, which hasn't and won't get as much attention they deserve, considering the fact that everyone has been blaming the dismal housing market for as far back as recent memory can take us. The good news is that the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing-home sales--including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops--for September jumped 5.5 percent higher over the previous month. They are1.4 percent higher than September 2007. That's the first time that sales have risen compared to a year earlier since November 2005.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/a_turn_in_the_housing_market.html
A Reality Check on Obama's Wish List
What will an Obama administration and a Congress with increased Democratic majorities do? That's a relevant question, given the Democrats' leads in the polls. And it's a little hard to answer, given the financial crisis that has been raging and the recession that seems to be ahead.
One thing they will certainly do is raise taxes on high earners. The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire in 2010, and congressional Democrats will gleefully allow the top rates to rise. Left-leaning Democrats, like Barack Obama himself, want to "spread the wealth around," as the candidate told Joe the Plumber in October. Blue Dog Democrats want to reduce the budget deficit and will welcome the additional revenue that the Congressional Budget Office's static-analysis models will promise. Raising taxes when the economy is weakening is not the medicine prescribed by Keynesian economics, and it is probably not what Obama's economic advisers would prescribe if they were starting from scratch today. It is what Herbert Hoover and Congress did in the early 1930s, and it helped to produce the Great Depression. But it is baked into the pie.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/a_reality_check_on_obamas_wish.html
I Hear America Singing
SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- Like Walt Whitman, I hear America singing:
"...the varied carols I hear;
"...The carpenter singing his, as he measures his plank or beam,
"The mason singing his, as he makes ready for work..."
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/i_hear_america_singing.html
Reagan + Friedman + Keynes: We Need All the Help We Can Get.
Back in early 1981, when I went to Washington to work for President Reagan, one of the architects of supply-side economics, Columbia University's Robert Mundell, visited my OMB budget-bureau office inside the White House complex. At the time, we were suffering from double-digit inflation, sky-high interest rates, a long economic downturn and a near 15-year bear market in stocks.
So I asked Prof. Mundell, who later won a Nobel Prize in economics, whether Reagan's supply-side tax cuts would be sufficient to cure the economy. The professor answered that during periods of crisis, sometimes you have to be a supply-sider (tax rates), sometimes a monetarist (Fed money supply) and sometimes a Keynesian (federal deficits).
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/reagan_friedman_keynes_we_need.html
The Endgame in Florida
ORLANDO -- Florida provides the appropriate closing metaphor for the 2008 campaign.
If John McCain were on a clear path to victory, there would be no campaign here at all. Yet there was McCain's running mate Sarah Palin, battling on Sunday across the state's crucial central corridor in Tampa and Kissimmee. Come Wednesday, Bill Clinton will campaign with Barack Obama -- the former president's first joint appearance with the Democratic nominee -- at an evening rally here.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/obamas_work_pays_off_in_florid.html
Winning Clinton's West Virginia Voters
WILLIAMSON, W.Va. -- It's hard to find a place more Democratic than here in Mingo County, snug up against Kentucky in the southwestern corner of the state, where Mother Jones fought to unionize striking coalminers.
In 2004, when President Bush trounced John Kerry by seven points in this state, Mingo voted 56 percent for Kerry. Of 19,391 registered voters, just 1,741 are Republicans.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/winning_clintons_west_virginia.html
The Treats to Our Markets
Are Barack Obama's proposed tax increases adversely affecting our financial markets? We say yes, unambiguously. The senator has done a masterful job detracting attention from his tax increases with his $500-per-worker tax credit supposedly for 95 percent of Americans.
Obama has also set forth more than half a dozen additional refundable income tax credits targeted to low- and moderate-income workers for child care, education, housing, welfare, retirement, health care and other social purposes. These tax credits are devised to phase out based on income, which will ultimately increase marginal income tax rates for middle-class workers. In other words, as you earn more, you suffer a penalty in the phase-out of these credits, which has the exact effect of a marginal tax rate increase. That harms rather than improves the economy.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_treats_to_our_markets.html
Obama's Rallies Enormous Crowd in Denver
Colorado, in just 9 days, you'll have the chance to elect your next President. And you'll have the chance to bring the change we need to Washington. That's the good news. But we're going to have to work, and struggle, and fight for every single one of those 9 days to move our country in a new direction. We cannot let up. And we won't.
Because one thing we know is that change never comes without a fight. In the final days of campaigns, the say-anything, do-anything politics too often takes over. We've seen it before. And we're seeing it again today. The ugly phone calls. The misleading mail and TV ads. The careless, outrageous comments. All aimed at keeping us from working together, all aimed at stopping change.
Original: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/obamas_rallies_enormous_crowd.html
Gov. Kaine and Karl Rove on "Fox News Sunday"
CHRIS WALLACE, HOST: I'm Chris Wallace and this is "Fox News Sunday."
Nine days and counting until we elect a new president. As Obama and McCain criss-cross the country fighting for votes, the final battleground is set.
We'll handicap the race in two crucial states with Tim Kaine, governor of red-state Virginia and national co-chair for Obama, and Tom Ridge, former governor of blue-state Pennsylvania and a McCain national co-chair - - Kaine and Ridge, only on "Fox News Sunday."
Then, what happens in the final week of the campaign? We'll crunch the numbers, discuss the closing arguments and review the ground operations with the man behind two presidential victories, master strategist Karl Rove.
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